International Data Corporation (IDC) expects worldwide shipments of used smartphones, inclusive of both officially refurbished and used smartphones, to reach a total of 225.4 million units in 2020. This represents an increase of 9.2% over the 206.5 million units shipped in 2019. IDC projects used smartphone shipments will reach 351.6 million units in 2024 with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.2% from 2019 to 2024.
Much of the 9.2% growth continues to be driven by mature markets in which trade-in emulates a form of subsidy to push consumers to upgrade. Over the past year, we have seen rapid growth in trade-in programs and average selling prices (ASPs) across numerous channels. Premium flagship offerings continue to rely heavily on trade-in programs to make the upfront cost more affordable to consumers. Vendors such as Apple, Samsung, and Huawei have all implemented their own programs with very aggressive trade-in offers compared with other channels. Telcos on the other hand are using trade-in combined with bundling (family plans and services) to get consumers to turn over their old device and upgrade. Although 2020 volume was not as large as expected, the used market still performed well compared with the new market, where IDC is expecting a 6.4% decline for smartphones for the year. As with our previous forecast, we still expect to see double-digit growth during the forecast period, at an average of 11.8%.
"In contrast to the recent declines in the new smartphone market, as well as the forecast for minimal growth in new shipments over the next few years, the used market for smartphones shows no signs of slowing down across all parts of the globe," said Anthony Scarsella, research manager with IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. "Refurbished and used devices continue to provide cost-effective alternatives to both consumers and businesses that are looking to save money when purchasing a smartphone. Moreover, the ability for vendors to push more affordable refurbished devices in markets where they normally would not have a presence is helping these players grow their brand as well as their ecosystem of apps, services, and accessories."
Worldwide Used Smartphone Shipments (shipments in millions of units)
Table Notes: Data is subject to change.
* Forecast projections.
"Although the COVID-19 pandemic has posed challenges for secondary market participants around able-bodied workers and logistics, most of the industry has been able to satisfy demand for refurbished smartphones. Once the pandemic begins to fade, those that were able to invest in technology will be well-poised to prosper during the recovery." said Will Stofega, program director, Mobile Phones.
According to IDC's taxonomy, a refurbished smartphone is a device that has been used and disposed of at a collection point by its owner. Once the device has been examined and classified as suitable for refurbishment, it is sent off to a facility for reconditioning and is eventually sold via a secondary market channel. A refurbished smartphone is not a "hand me down" or gained as the result of a person-to-person sale or trade.
The IDC report, Worldwide Used Smartphone Forecast, 2020–2024 (Doc #US47090920), provides an overview and five-year forecast of the worldwide refurbished phone market and its expansion and growth by 2024. This study also provides a look at key players and the impact they will have on vendors, carriers, and consumers.
International Data Corporation (IDC) is the premier global provider of market intelligence, advisory services, and events for the information technology, telecommunications, and consumer technology markets. With more than 1,100 analysts worldwide, IDC offers global, regional, and local expertise on technology and industry opportunities and trends in over 110 countries. IDC's analysis and insight helps IT professionals, business executives, and the investment community to make fact-based technology decisions and to achieve their key business objectives. Founded in 1964, IDC is a wholly-owned subsidiary of International Data Group (IDG), the world's leading tech media, data and marketing services company. To learn more about IDC, please visit www.idc.com. Follow IDC on Twitter at @IDC and LinkedIn. Subscribe to the IDC Blog for industry news and insights: http://bit.ly/IDCBlog_Subscribe.